adefwebserver's Journal, 07 February 2019

Day 2 of a planned 3 days of ‘no solid food’ fasting
Blood sugar 108 mg/dL

I usually look only at my calories, my “intake”, when I run the numbers but, I wanted to actually look at my calorie deficit, because I run nearly 20 miles a week as well as work out at the gym and walk.

Let’s look at some numbers:

🌟 09/2018: Food: 42184 kcal - Exercise: 79974 kcal = -37790 deficit
🌟 10/2018: Food: 45087 kcal - Exercise: 79011 kcal = -33924 deficit
🌟 11/2018: Food: 49731 kcal - Exercise: 71585 kcal = -21854 deficit
🌟 12/2018: Food: 48171 kcal - Exercise: 71900 kcal = -23729 deficit
🌟 01/2019: Food: 39207 kcal - Exercise: 68079 kcal = -28872 deficit

So I average a 30k calorie deficit each month. A pound of fat is about 3500 calories. 30k / 3500 = 10.7 pounds a month. So I should have lost 50 pounds over 5 months!

Ok, let’s see what actually happened:

09/01/2018: 168 pounds
02/01/2019: 168 pounds

Let’s look at a time when I actually did lose weight:

04/01/2018: 208 pounds
09/01/2018: 168 pounds

🌟 04/2018: Food: 11620 kcal - Exercise: 58470 kcal = -46850 deficit
🌟 05/2018: Food: 12121 kcal - Exercise: 57951 kcal = -45830 deficit
🌟 06/2018: Food: 16954 kcal - Exercise: 78962 kcal = -62008 deficit
🌟 07/2018: Food: 24710 kcal - Exercise: 75879 kcal = -51169 deficit
🌟 08/2018: Food: 44817 kcal - Exercise: 74405 kcal = -29588 deficit

Yes, the deficits are bigger, but:

👎🏾 146169 calorie deficit for no loss
👍🏾 235445 calorie deficit for a 40 pound loss

Is a 89276 calorie deficit the difference between losing 40 pounds and not losing anything at all? At 3500 calories to a pound of fat, that is a 25 pound deficit difference not 40 pounds.

Meaning, if I assumed that 'I really don't have a 146169 calorie deficit', and that in November I ate 49731 calories and only burned 42731 calories (NOT 71585 calories), for a calorie surplus of 7000 calories and gain of 2 pounds for that month (7000 / 3500 calories per pound = 2 pounds).

So, I should reduce any recorded deficit difference by 28000 calories.

The same logic would have to be applied when I DID lose weight. In June I ate 16954 calories but only burned 42731 calories (not 78962 calories), for a calorie deficit of 25777 calories, yet I still lost 11 pounds (not the expected 7 (25777 / 3500 calories per pound = 7 pounds)?

You may say, well, it is still 'close'. Ok, but if I keep applying the logic, month after month, the discrepancy gets wider...

If I reduce the deficit, for each month during the 5 month period I lost weight, by 28000 calories, I come out with a total 95445 calorie deficit (rather than 235445 calorie). 95445 / 3500 calories a pound = 27 pounds. This still doesn't explain the 40 pounds lost during that period.

Let’s look at the macros

Maintained Weight (average per day):

09/2018: (Fat: 76.46g, Protein: 121.36g, Carbs: 48.38g) | 168 > 167 = -1 pounds
10/2018: (Fat: 75.18g, Protein: 130.73g, Carbs: 58.22g) | 168 > 171 = +3 pounds
11/2018: (Fat: 76.17g, Protein: 150.47g, Carbs: 84.83g) | 169 > 171 = +2 pounds
12/2018: (Fat: 70.20g, Protein: 141.12g, Carbs: 81.30g) | 170 > 175 = +5 pounds
01/2019: (Fat: 55.74g, Protein: 112.56g, Carbs: 70.55g) | 175 > 170 = -5 pounds

Lost Weight (average per day):

04/2018: (Fat: 27.19g, Protein: 27.45g, Carbs: 47.44g) | 208 > 195 = -13 pounds
05/2018: (Fat: 25.63g, Protein: 23.44g, Carbs: 60.27g) | 194 > 188 = -6 pounds
06/2018: (Fat: 28.99g, Protein: 33.04g, Carbs: 46.91g) | 188 > 177 = -11 pounds
07/2018: (Fat: 50.53g, Protein: 59.97g, Carbs: 28.35g) | 177 > 167 = -10 pounds
08/2018: (Fat: 73.07g, Protein: 127.94g, Carbs: 64.82g) | 168 > 169 = +1 pounds

The carbs are relatively close, but the protein really stands out. If I look at when there are higher carbs and higher protein there is a direct correlation.

Knowing my body can convert protein to carbs (…the liver converts an average of 58% of the protein we eat into carbohydrates) my data still points to a direct correlation between weight loss and carbs.

So, if I really want to cut weight I need to lower my protein and my carbs.

Dietary Fat and Hyperinsulinemia

😎 Life is Good! Have a great day everyone!
171.0 lb Lost so far: 36.0 lb.    Still to go: 7.0 lb.    Diet followed 100%.

Diet Calendar Entries for 07 February 2019:
530 kcal Fat: 20.00g | Prot: 72.00g | Carb: 9.00g.   Breakfast: Quest Vanilla Milkshake Protein Powder, Land O'Lakes Heavy Whipping Cream. Dinner: Quest Vanilla Milkshake Protein Powder, Land O'Lakes Heavy Whipping Cream. more...
1930 kcal Activities & Exercise: Walking (slow) - 2/mph - 30 minutes, Resting - 15 hours and 30 minutes, Sleeping - 8 hours. more...
losing 14.0 lb a week

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Comments 
FatSecret is SO awesome to help us track in this kind of detail. I have to sit down and crunch my own numbers because this has been perplexing me too for years. The calorie deficit thing. They say that our bodies get more efficient at holding onto fat as we lose weight, but our apple watches/ fit bits so far must be calculating calories expended with a “standard man or woman of x height and weight” in mind. I wonder if they’re going to get better at that in future!? ALSO hormones are supposed to be involved. 
08 Feb 19 by member: Tash23
So you're losing lean mass...this is a good thing? Maybe take progress pics instead of living by the scale. 
08 Feb 19 by member: -Diablo
Not all weight is bad. I am up 10 pounds and am leaner. You lift and are already at a low weight. You're lean enough to be losing precious muscle with low protein intake. Why would you want to do that? For the sake of the scale moving downward? 
08 Feb 19 by member: -Diablo
@Diablo360x - My number one goal is to not get fat again. Yes, I want to build my muscles, but, I just can't let my weight *ever* hit 180 pounds. Yes, this WILL limit me, but, I accept that :) 
08 Feb 19 by member: adefwebserver
I'll stop posting about it. Nice analysis and keep up the good work. 
08 Feb 19 by member: -Diablo
** For the record, I have been deleting any comments to my Journal that I feel are 'argumentative' :) ** 
08 Feb 19 by member: adefwebserver
Great loss! 
08 Feb 19 by member: Tracyh75
Very interesting. I’m impressed with your math and have been wondering about the same thing myself. I’m only off by about ten pounds a month, but it’s still perplexing. They say the last five pounds are always the hardest to lose and I’m wondering if it isn’t also evolution and genetics—keeping us alive through the famine and wars. 
08 Feb 19 by member: Tash23
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